Jonathan R. Mitchell, MS, MBA

I turn difficult life-sciences evidence into decisions teams can act on.

I help teams clarify launch, brand, portfolio, and asset decisions when scientific, clinical, market, competitive, and stakeholder evidence point in different directions.

Review selected work Download resume

Manager / Senior Manager focus: commercial strategy, new product planning, business insights, competitive intelligence, forecasting, and portfolio strategy.

Selected work & impact

Here is the evidence, organized by the decision it supported.

Each row follows the same logic: business question, contribution, and decision value. Scale appears only where it clarifies the work.

Selected life-sciences strategy work organized by context, business question, contribution, and impact.
Context & evidence	Business question	My contribution	Why it mattered
ChiesiCardene stakeholder research115 responses in under 30 days	What hospital-stakeholder evidence should shape brand planning?	Designed the research approach and survey, evaluated vendors, and supported agency execution.	Converted a broad information need into decision-ready stakeholder evidence on a short timeline.
ChiesiCystic-fibrosis customer data20 shipment locations mapped to the correct clinics	Were shipments and customer activity being attributed to the right CF centers?	Reconciled prescription, shipment, clinic, and territory evidence across multiple data sources.	Surfaced segmentation errors and corrected the evidence base behind customer and field decisions.
ChiesiCross-brand commercial planning18+ projects and workstreams in five months across Cardene, BETHKIS & PERTZYE	How should research, analytics, patient, access, lifecycle, and execution evidence connect across brand planning?	Moved from Cardene hospital-products work into an extended BETHKIS and PERTZYE CF assignment spanning brand research, customer and patient insight, reimbursement, lifecycle, and execution questions.	Carried strategic context across workstreams so individual analyses contributed to a more coherent planning picture.
ChiesiBusiness-development assessments4 opportunities evaluated	Which opportunities merited deeper diligence?	Integrated technical merit, commercial fit, reimbursement considerations, and market evidence.	Made unlike opportunities comparable on a consistent advance / pass decision frame.
DivinerTrial-specific clinical forecasting37+ indications forecasted; contributor to a 65-trial published pilot	What probability should be assigned to this specific trial rather than to its phase average?	Produced independent probability-of-success estimates and written rationales, reviewed anonymized peer evidence, and reforecasted when warranted.	Across 47 resolved pilot trials, the panel achieved a 0.20 Brier score; calibration quartiles were within 1–9 percentage points of observed success rates, and panel forecasts outperformed about 75% of individual forecasters.

Chiesi · Commercial strategy in practice

Five months, 18+ workstreams, and a view across the commercial system.

The assignment began with Cardene hospital-products work and expanded into BETHKIS and PERTZYE cystic-fibrosis brand planning. The important point is not the project count by itself; it is the breadth of decisions the work touched and the context carried from one question to the next.

Download the one-page Chiesi summary

STARTED WITHCardene hospital-products strategy work

EXPANDED INTOBETHKIS & PERTZYE CF brand planning

CONNECTED ACROSSResearch, analytics, patient, access, lifecycle & BD

Detailed scope of Jonathan Mitchell’s Chiesi work.
Workstream	Representative work	Decision relevance
Stakeholder & market research	Designed the Cardene hospital-stakeholder research approach and survey, evaluated vendors, and supported a 115-response field effort in under 30 days.	Produced decision-ready customer evidence for brand planning on a short clock.
Customer & account analytics	Reconciled prescription, shipment, clinic, and territory evidence and mapped 20 shipment locations to the correct cystic-fibrosis clinics.	Exposed segmentation errors before they could distort customer, territory, or performance conclusions.
Patient & customer insight	Supported CF patient-journey, patient-guide, and customer-insight work across BETHKIS and PERTZYE planning.	Connected brand questions to the lived care pathway rather than treating the market as an abstract funnel.
Access & reimbursement	Examined coding, reimbursement, and access considerations alongside brand and opportunity questions.	Brought practical adoption constraints into the commercial picture earlier.
Lifecycle & execution	Contributed to line-extension, indication, website, and execution-oriented analyses across the assignment.	Carried strategy into the downstream choices that determine how a plan reaches customers.
Business development	Assessed four opportunities across technical merit, commercial fit, reimbursement considerations, and market evidence.	Created a consistent basis for comparing unlike opportunities and identifying what required deeper diligence.

Public-safe summary based on contemporaneous project records; confidential details and internal data are intentionally omitted.

Diviner · Forecasting under uncertainty

The job was not to sound certain. It was to be calibrated.

Historical phase averages are useful starting points, but they do not capture the mechanism, population, endpoint, design, safety, competitive, and execution risks of an individual trial.

MY ROLE

Produced trial-specific probability-of-success estimates and written rationales across 37+ indications as part of anonymized external-expert panels.

THE ANALYTICAL WORK

Integrated mechanism, translational, clinical, endpoint, safety, competitive, and operational evidence; identified the uncertainties most likely to change the estimate; and revised forecasts when new evidence warranted it.

WHY IT MATTERSA useful forecast makes the reasoning, confidence, and conditions for changing the answer visible.

HOW THE PANEL PROCESS WORKED

Independent forecast

Estimate trial-specific probability of success before group influence.

Written rationale

Make evidence, assumptions, and uncertainty drivers explicit.

Structured exchange

Review evidence surfaced by other anonymized experts.

Reforecast

Update the estimate when warranted without surrendering independent judgment.

What the published pilot shows

Evidence that the panel method produced calibrated, decision-useful forecasts.

Published Diviner forecasting pilot results.
Published pilot	65 clinical trials
Resolved at analysis	47 trials
Aggregate accuracy	0.20 Brier score
Calibration	Quartiles within 1–9 percentage points of observed success rates
Relative performance	Panel forecasts outperformed about 75% of individual forecasters

Method and pilot results described in David FS, Benson RE, Gordon M, Mytelka DS. “Forecasting clinical trial success using anonymized external expert panels.” Drug Discovery Today, 2025.

What ties the work together

The assignment changes. The analytical move stays consistent.

The value is not finding an interesting fact. It is recognizing which fact changes the conclusion.

Examples of analytical reasoning and decision value.
Decision	Analytical move	So what
Clinical risk	Separate biological plausibility from execution risk across the endpoint, population, design, safety, device, and operating context.	Forecast the actual trial, not the molecule in the abstract.
Portfolio choice	Make the advance / pass logic inspectable across technical merit, patent position, reimbursement, commercial fit, and scenario economics.	Show leaders what drives the recommendation and what could reverse it.
Commercial insight	Reconcile shipment, prescription, clinic, territory, and stakeholder evidence before interpreting performance.	Correct the decision foundation before optimizing execution.

Approach

One repeatable path from ambiguity to action.

Frame

Define the decision, stakeholder, and consequence of being wrong.

OUTPUT · Decision frame

Integrate

Combine scientific, clinical, market, competitive, and customer evidence.

OUTPUT · Evidence map

Pressure-test

Isolate uncertainty, competing explanations, and scenario sensitivity.

OUTPUT · Uncertainty map

Recommend

Deliver a point of view, evidence gaps, and practical next actions.

OUTPUT · Decision memo

About

Scientific fluency, commercial discipline, and a bias toward a clear recommendation.

My background combines an MS in Biotechnology with a newly completed DePaul MBA and a graduate certificate in Technology Entrepreneurship & Commercialization from NC State. I have worked across specialty pharma, biotech, medtech, digital health, and animal health.

MBA: DePaul University, Kellstadt Graduate School of Business · 2026
Graduate Certificate: Technology Entrepreneurship & Commercialization, NC State · 2026
MS: Biotechnology, Rush University · 2011

Contact

Looking for the next high-uncertainty decision worth clarifying.

I am primarily pursuing full-time Manager / Senior Manager roles and am also open to well-scoped paid consulting engagements.

jonathan_mitchell@outlook.com LinkedIn Resume